Our Player Props Tool spots opportunities to beat the sportsbooks on player prop inefficiencies. While spreads and totals have very efficient markets and are hard to consistently beat over long periods of time, player props provide a much larger edge. This is mainly because the betting limits are much lower (usually between $100 and $500) compared to standard wager types, meaning the books aren't going to take a huge loss on them regardless of what happens.
How the tool works
We pull prop odds from numerous books around the market and calculate the implied total based on the over/under and juice being offered. We compare those implied odds to our projections and calculate the difference to find the largest edges available.
In the picture above, Philip Lindsay has a receiving yards over/under of 22.5 yards (-114 juice), which equates to an implied total of 23.4 yards. Our in-house projections have him at 18 receiving yards, which is 5.4 yards less than his implied total. If you divide 5.4 by 22.5, you get 0.24, in other words a 24% difference between our projection and the listed over/under.
The 'Bet Quality' number highlighted in green is based off of the percentage difference. You'll generally be looking to bet on the highest bet quality choices at the top of the page.
Filters
At the top of the page, you'll notice several filters, including Position, Statistic and Player. You can use these to help narrow down your selections, which can be especially helpful for large NFL or NBA slates. You can also look at the tool's historical picks by changing the start and end dates. You'll be able to see the win rate for each Bet Quality number, as well as each individual wager.
